election 2015?

Only 1423 days to go, until the next general election  (according to the coalition agreement), and from d\’ancona we read that “senior adviser Steve Hilton – often warn him that one term may well be all that this Government gets. Hilton sees it as his responsibility to shake Cameron into acting as if these are the only five years he has: seize the Dave, so to speak.”

Indeed, as has been obvious for some time, Cameron may have the personality of Mr Blair, but he does not have the capability to win an election, it cannot be repeated more often, up against one of the most unpopular Prime Minister’s in recent times Cameron blew his chance, having fixed himself the top job and  fixed the terms (five years), it is most likely he will only have the one term -if that.

With the constant uturns, the failed ‘detoxification process, and his high self regard, Cameron fails to see his faults through his supposed good traits, which even then can often be attributed to luck.

George Osborne was/is campaign manager for general elections, as well as being chancellor D’ancona goes on…

The alternative perspective is one with which we became familiar in the New Labour era – namely, that the fundamental purpose of a government is to get re-elected. This view is increasingly ascribed to George Osborne

He, after all, is personally responsible for the most radical and risky proposals that this Coalition has undertaken, and he is under huge pressure to translate policy boldness into political dividend. It would be absurd to accuse Osborne, of all people, of timidity. At the same time, he is the Government’s key political strategist, as well as its fiscal crusader, the man charged with winning the next election (May 7, 2015, according to the Coalition Agreement) – and with avoiding the misery of a second hung Parliament.

Having set course to wipe out the deficit, Osborne’s eyes are now firmly fixed on election day 2015, the reduction of the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, and the new boundary commission reports due by October 2013.”

The fact that the government and the prospect of an overall majority for the conservatives at the next election, rely on the economy picking up and Osborne being able to tell the country he managed to get the economy back on track. The conservatives under cameron and osborne will require a lot more luck, the way it looks, whilst unemployment is down and the cost of debt are reasonable, it is not guaranteed to last, for if the British economy does not start producing real growth than the deficit will not reduce substantially enough. And with the coalition programme only expected to cut the deficit at a rate of 1% more than the Alistair Darling plan would of, it is not likely that the prosperity envisaged by dave and george will come to fruition,

I suspect that as with most coalition policy it will have to be revised, not due to the usual media or focus group opposition  but through the force of the markets. i also believe that the coalition will split before 2015, leaving “the misery of a second hung parliament” a viable prospect.


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